Prepare for the season ahead with our in-depth winter forecast coverage. Experts analyze global climate patterns like El Niño/La Niña, predicting temperatures,...
Meteorologists analyze long-term climate models, historical data, ocean temperatures (like El Niño/La Niña), atmospheric patterns, and jet stream positions to predict seasonal trends for temperature and precipitation.
Key influences include oceanic oscillations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation), sea surface temperatures, stratospheric polar vortex behavior, and global atmospheric circulation patterns.
Major meteorological agencies usually release their preliminary winter outlooks in late September or October, with updates often provided through November and December as more data becomes available.
Long-range forecasts provide general trends for temperature and precipitation anomalies rather than precise daily weather. Their accuracy varies, generally indicating probabilities for broader regions and overall conditions, not specific storm events.