What is epistemic uncertainty?

Epistemic uncertainty is the uncertainty that arises from a lack of knowledge, information, or understanding about a system or phenomenon, rather than from inherent randomness.

How does epistemic uncertainty differ from aleatoric uncertainty?

Epistemic uncertainty can theoretically be reduced or eliminated with more data, better models, or increased knowledge, whereas aleatoric uncertainty is irreducible randomness inherent in a system or process.

Why is understanding epistemic uncertainty important?

It is crucial for making informed decisions, accurately assessing risks, and improving the reliability and trustworthiness of scientific models, predictions, and policy recommendations in various fields.

How can epistemic uncertainty be reduced?

It can be reduced through acquiring more data, improving measurement techniques, refining models, conducting further research, and leveraging expert elicitation to fill knowledge gaps.