An Al Jazeera analysis, published on January 15, 2026, scrutinizes US President Donald Trump's recent approach to Iran, characterizing his rhetorical de-escalation regarding the government's crackdown on protesters as a 'bluff.' The article highlights Trump's initial threats of military action against Iran, followed by his public assertion that the killings and planned executions of protesters had ceased, allegedly based on assurances from Tehran. This pattern is presented within the context of Trump's first year in his second term, suggesting his historical track record of unpredictable foreign policy actions, including military interventions in Venezuela and an alleged Israeli strike on Iran with Trump's presumed approval, points to a persistent danger. Despite the apparent dialing back of rhetoric, the article contends that the possibility of a US military strike on Iran remains a 'real threat.' Corroborating this underlying tension are recent developments such as the redeployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the US Central Command's area of responsibility, encompassing the Middle East. Furthermore, the United States has imposed new sanctions on Iran's influential security chief and top military officers, holding them responsible for human rights violations during the protest suppression. Trump's public statements on social media, including a message to Iranian protesters stating 'HELP IS ON ITS WAY,' without further elaboration, contribute to the volatile and uncertain situation. The analysis concludes that Trump's history indicates military actions can materialize even when diplomatic channels appear to be active.