Rupee Dips on NDF Maturities, Corporate Hedging Pressures | Quick Digest

Rupee Dips on NDF Maturities, Corporate Hedging Pressures | Quick Digest
The Indian rupee weakened on Friday due to significant dollar demand from maturing non-deliverable forward (NDF) positions and corporate hedging activities. This movement reflects broader pressures including foreign fund outflows and anticipation of a key U.S. Supreme Court ruling on trade tariffs.

Indian Rupee dipped to 90.1625 against US dollar on Friday.

Maturity of NDF positions drove significant dollar demand.

Corporate hedging activities also contributed to the rupee's weakness.

Global markets awaited a key U.S. Supreme Court ruling on trade tariffs.

Weakness in local stocks and foreign portfolio outflows further pressured the rupee.

RBI intervened to limit losses, but rupee remains vulnerable.

The Indian rupee concluded Friday's trading session lower, closing at 90.1625 against the U.S. dollar, experiencing a 0.1% dip on the day, though it remained largely unchanged week-on-week. This depreciation was primarily attributed to heightened dollar demand stemming from the maturity of non-deliverable forward (NDF) positions, a common financial instrument used for hedging currency risks without actual delivery of the underlying currency. Additionally, corporate hedging activities, where companies buy dollars to protect against future currency fluctuations, further exerted downward pressure on the local currency. Financial analysts and traders also pointed to a confluence of other factors influencing the rupee's performance. Global market participants were keenly awaiting a crucial U.S. Supreme Court ruling on trade tariffs, which introduced an element of uncertainty. Domestically, a decline in local stock markets, with the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 recording their steepest weekly falls since late September, compounded the rupee's woes. Moreover, persistent foreign portfolio outflows, with nearly $1 billion of local stocks sold by foreign investors in January alone, adding to a record $19 billion outflow last year, continued to weigh on the currency. Despite the pressure, state-run banks were observed intermittently offering dollars near the rupee's daily low, helping to mitigate larger losses. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had also stepped in earlier in the week to shore up the currency. However, traders cautioned that the rupee remains susceptible to further weakening without significant progress in U.S.-India trade talks or a reversal in foreign portfolio outflows. The general sentiment indicates that the cycle of elevated dollar demand from NDF maturities is likely to continue, keeping the currency exposed to further volatility.
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