Exit polls project close Bengal contest, DMK lead in TN, UDF in Kerala, NDA in Assam & Puducherry

Exit polls project close Bengal contest, DMK lead in TN, UDF in Kerala, NDA in Assam & Puducherry | Quick Digest
Exit polls released on April 29, 2026, predict a tightly contested election in West Bengal, with a lead for the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu. Projections also indicate the United Democratic Front (UDF) ahead in Kerala and a victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam and Puducherry.

Key Highlights

  • West Bengal exit polls suggest a close fight between BJP and TMC.
  • DMK alliance expected to lead in Tamil Nadu, with TVK as a new force.
  • UDF projected to win in Kerala, potentially unseating the LDF.
  • NDA anticipated to secure a majority in Assam and Puducherry.
  • Exit polls offer early indications, with final results on May 4.
  • Past exit poll accuracy has varied, especially in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
Exit polls released on April 29, 2026, following the conclusion of voting for the West Bengal Assembly elections, have painted a varied picture across the five states and one Union Territory that went to polls. The projections indicate a nail-biting contest in West Bengal, a lead for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance in Tamil Nadu, a potential return for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, and a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Assam and Puducherry. In West Bengal, the exit polls suggest a close race between the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP, with many pollsters giving a slight edge to the BJP. For instance, Matrize predicted the BJP winning 146-161 seats and the TMC 125-140 seats. Poll Diary projected a BJP win with 142-171 seats, with the TMC trailing at 95-110 seats. Chanakya Strategies projected 150-160 seats for the BJP and 130-140 for the TMC. However, some pollsters like Janmat and People's Pulse have projected a sweep for the TMC, indicating a divergence in predictions. The TMC has also expressed skepticism about exit poll accuracy, citing past discrepancies. Tamil Nadu's exit polls largely point towards a victory for the DMK-led alliance, with projections suggesting they will retain power. Axis My India, however, projected a surprisingly strong performance for actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), giving it 98-120 seats, compared to 92-110 for DMK+ and 22-32 for AIADMK+. Other pollsters like P-Marq gave DMK+ 125-145 seats, AIADMK+ 65-85, and TVK 16-26 seats. Matrize predicted 122-132 for DMK+ and 80-100 for AIADMK+. In Kerala, the exit polls indicate a potential comeback for the Congress-led UDF, possibly unseating the incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF). Axis My India forecast 78-90 seats for the UDF and 49-62 for the LDF. People's Pulse predicted 75-85 for the UDF and 55-65 for the LDF. This projection marks a potential break in the LDF's recent streak of victories, despite their historical performance in 2021 where they won 99 seats. Assam and Puducherry appear to be heading towards an NDA victory. In Assam, multiple pollsters, including Axis My India and JVC, project the BJP winning a comfortable majority, with seat estimates ranging from 85-101 for the BJP and 20-36 for the Congress. In Puducherry, exit polls suggest the NDA alliance retaining power, with projections from People's Pulse indicating 15-19 seats for the NDA and Axis My India predicting 16-20 seats. It is crucial to note that exit polls are not actual results and have historically shown varying degrees of accuracy. The 2021 elections, for instance, saw significant misses in West Bengal, where exit polls underestimated the TMC's landslide victory, and in Tamil Nadu, where some polls overestimated the DMK's seat share. The final results for these Assembly elections are scheduled to be declared on May 4, 2026. The Election Commission of India has previously cautioned against the premature dissemination of exit poll results due to potential distortions. The high voter turnout across these states underscores the significant public engagement in these elections.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are exit polls and when are they released?

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots, asking them how they voted. They are typically released after the final phase of voting concludes in an election. For the recent state assembly elections, exit polls were released on April 29, 2026, after voting ended in West Bengal.

Which states/Union Territories are covered by these exit polls?

These exit polls cover the Assembly elections held in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and the Union Territory of Puducherry.

How accurate have exit polls been in the past?

Exit poll accuracy has varied. In the 2021 state elections, they were generally accurate for Assam and Kerala, but significantly underestimated the Trinamool Congress's victory in West Bengal and had some discrepancies in Tamil Nadu. The actual results will be declared on May 4, 2026.

What is the significance of actor Vijay's party (TVK) in Tamil Nadu exit polls?

Some exit polls, notably Axis My India, project actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a significant new force in Tamil Nadu politics, with seat projections that could position it as a 'third front' in the state's political landscape, potentially impacting the traditional DMK vs AIADMK contest.

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