The global cardamom market is experiencing a significant shift, with international buyers increasingly turning to India following severe crop failures in Guatemala, traditionally the world's largest producer. Guatemala's production estimates for the 2024-25 season have slumped by 40-50% from a normal range of 40,000-50,000 metric tonnes to approximately 17,000-22,000 metric tonnes, primarily due to the adverse effects of El Niño, altered rainfall cycles, heat stress, and increased disease pressure between 2023 and 2024. This catastrophic drop in Guatemalan supply has created a major opportunity for India, the native origin and second-largest producer of cardamom. India's fragmented, shade-grown cultivation model has demonstrated lower concentration risk, enabling it to maintain relatively stable production, expected to be around 17,000-22,000 tonnes this year, even amidst its own drought challenges. As a result, Indian cardamom exports have seen a substantial boost, nearly doubling to projected figures of 12,000-14,000 metric tonnes in the current season, compared to the usual 6,000-8,000 metric tonnes. This surge in demand has led to a firming up of auction prices, with Indian cardamom now trading near ₹3,150 per kilo (around $35/kg). Major export destinations for Indian cardamom include the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Industry experts anticipate that this favorable market condition for India could persist for at least two seasons, given Guatemala's recovery timeline. The global green cardamom market itself is projected to grow, driven by increasing consumer demand for natural flavors and health benefits, further solidifying India's position in the international spice trade.