The global oil market experienced significant upward momentum on January 9, 2026, with both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rising sharply, setting the stage for a strong weekly gain. This rally is primarily attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on crude supply. A major factor contributing to market apprehension is the intensifying civil unrest in Iran, which has sparked concerns over potential disruptions to the nation's oil output. Reports of a nationwide internet blackout in Iran have further fueled these worries, with the U.S. threatening severe action if protesters are violently suppressed. Concurrently, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war continues to present significant supply risks. Recent reports indicate Russia launched hypersonic missiles targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, escalating fears of broader conflict impacts on oil flows. U.S. President Donald Trump also threatened to impose substantial tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, aiming to pressure Moscow in peace negotiations. While Russia's oil revenues faced declines in 2025 due to sanctions and falling prices, its trade with nations like China and India is expected to continue, albeit with realigned flows. Adding another layer of complexity to the global oil landscape is the focus on Venezuela. The United States and Venezuela have finalized a substantial agreement for the export of up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude to the U.S. This development follows the recent apprehension of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces, and the U.S. plans to market a significant volume of Venezuelan crude previously held under embargo. This deal is expected to redirect Venezuelan oil from traditional buyers like China to the U.S. market. However, challenges remain in revitalizing Venezuela's oil sector, which requires massive investment and time to recover from years of underinvestment and sanctions, even with selective U.S. sanction rollbacks and technical assistance. Despite these geopolitical supply risks, the broader market faces a paradoxical situation of rising global oil inventories and potential oversupply in the first half of 2026, which could temper significant price increases in the long run.