India's 2026 Monsoon Forecast: Below-Normal Rains Expected Amid El Niño Concerns

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast indicating that India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026. Precipitation is projected to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. The LPA, calculated based on the 1971-2020 period, is 87 cm. Rainfall below 96% of the LPA is classified as 'below normal' by the IMD. This forecast marks the first instance of a below-normal monsoon prediction in three years. The primary driver behind this forecast is the anticipated development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season. El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean, is historically linked to weaker monsoon winds and reduced rainfall over India. While ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to prevail initially, El Niño is expected to develop in the latter half of the monsoon period, from June to September. Spatially, the forecast suggests that below-normal rainfall is expected over large parts of the country. However, some regions, including parts of the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India, may still receive normal to above-normal precipitation. Specifically, Telangana and other South Indian states might be less affected due to the potential development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which could enhance late-season rainfall in these areas. The implications of a below-normal monsoon are significant, particularly for India's agriculture-dependent economy. The southwest monsoon is crucial for irrigating nearly half of the country's farmland. A deficit monsoon season can lead to reduced crop yields, impacting food prices, rural incomes, and overall economic growth. Farmers who rely heavily on monsoon rains for the Kharif cropping season are particularly vulnerable. While El Niño is a significant factor, other climate drivers are also being monitored. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is considered favourable for rainfall and could potentially offset some of the adverse effects of El Niño. Additionally, slightly below-normal Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover between January and March 2026 is generally considered favourable for the southwest monsoon. The IMD follows a two-stage forecasting strategy and will issue an updated forecast, including more specific spatial distribution details, in the last week of May. This updated forecast will also include the expected onset date of the monsoon. Several other weather agencies and climate scientists have also indicated similar concerns. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted a 'below normal' monsoon at 94% of the LPA, citing El Niño risk. Climate scientist Dr. M.N. Rajeevan has also warned of a possible strong El Niño event in 2026, though he noted that a positive IOD might mitigate its impact. The accuracy of monsoon forecasts is a continuous area of improvement for the IMD. While recent years have shown good accuracy, uncertainties associated with large-scale climate drivers like ENSO and IOD, as well as intra-seasonal variability, introduce challenges. The IMD is continuously integrating advanced climate-modelling tools and satellite data to enhance forecast precision. In summary, the 2026 monsoon season is anticipated to be below normal, primarily due to El Niño. This forecast raises concerns for India's agricultural sector and water resources, though regional variations and other climate factors might influence the final rainfall distribution.

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