Global oil prices saw a modest increase on Monday, January 12, 2026, as the market grappled with conflicting supply signals. Escalating protests and civil unrest in Iran are generating significant concerns about potential disruptions to the OPEC nation's oil exports, which contribute roughly 2% of global supply. Analysts from ANZ have indicated that up to 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iran's oil exports could be at risk, with reports of calls for oil industry workers to cease operations amidst the demonstrations. U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly threatened intervention if force is used against protesters, adding to geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly around the critical Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, efforts to resume oil exports from Venezuela are helping to cap further price surges. Following the recent ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. expects Venezuela to turn over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil. Commodities trading houses, including Trafigura, are actively preparing to load vessels for these Venezuelan exports to the United States. While this resumption introduces new supply to the market, experts note that a full recovery of Venezuela's production capacity to historical levels would require billions in capital investment and sustained stability. Despite the immediate geopolitical risks influencing price movements, some analysts, including Goldman Sachs, maintain a bearish outlook for 2026, projecting lower oil prices due to an anticipated global supply surplus. The market's current modest reaction suggests a wait-and-see approach, with many looking for concrete evidence of supply disruption before a significant price increase. For India, a major oil importer, these developments are critically important as they directly impact energy security, inflation, and the national economy.