Italy: Meloni Faces Setback After Judicial Reform Referendum Defeat

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has conceded a significant political defeat after voters decisively rejected her government's proposed judicial reforms in a national referendum held on March 22 and 23, 2026. The outcome saw the 'No' camp triumph with approximately 54% of the votes, while the 'Yes' campaign, backed by Meloni, garnered around 46%. Following the results, Meloni publicly acknowledged the Italian citizens' decision, stating, 'The Italians have decided and we respect their decision as always,' but also expressed 'regret for a missed opportunity to modernise Italy'. The referendum, which marked the fifth constitutional referendum in the history of the Italian Republic, aimed to introduce several structural amendments to the Constitution, particularly focusing on Title II and Title IV of Part II. Key proposals included the constitutional separation of the career paths of judicial magistrates (judges) and prosecutorial magistrates (public prosecutors). Currently, both are considered 'magistrates' in the Italian system, with some limited ability to switch roles. Another major aspect of the reform involved splitting the Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura (CSM), the self-governing body of the Italian judiciary, into a Judicial CSM and a Prosecutorial CSM, each responsible for their respective career management. Additionally, the reform proposed changes to how members of these councils would be selected, moving from internal elections to a lottery system, and establishing a new High Disciplinary Court. Meloni's right-wing coalition argued these changes were crucial for streamlining Italy's judicial system, which has often been criticised for its slowness, bureaucracy, and susceptibility to political influence, and to ensure greater impartiality in the courts. However, opponents, primarily from the center-left opposition, vehemently campaigned against the reforms, asserting that they risked undermining judicial independence and concentrating too much power in the executive branch. Critics also contended that the proposed measures failed to address the core issues plaguing Italy's justice system, such as lengthy trials, case backlogs, and prison overcrowding. The turnout for the two-day ballot was considerably higher than anticipated, reaching almost 59%, indicating a highly mobilised electorate and widespread public engagement with the issue. This high turnout was initially thought by some to potentially benefit the government, but ultimately reinforced the 'No' vote. Political analysts widely viewed the referendum as more than just a vote on judicial reform; it morphed into a de facto plebiscite on Prime Minister Meloni's leadership and her government, which has otherwise enjoyed a relatively stable period since coming to power in October 2022. Data from pollster Opinio for state broadcaster Rai suggested younger voters played a significant role in the outcome, with 61% of 18- to 34-year-olds rejecting the proposals. This defeat marks Meloni's first significant setback in a nationwide electoral contest and is expected to tarnish her reputation and leadership aura. While the defeat does not compel her resignation, as her mandate runs until 2027, it undoubtedly weakens her and her coalition's position ahead of national elections anticipated in 2027. Analysts suggest this outcome could hinder her government's ability to push through other ambitious reforms, such as a proposed electoral law aimed at boosting their chances in the next general election or her flagship policy of direct prime ministerial elections, both of which would also require constitutional amendments. The 'No' vote has invigorated the center-left opposition, which sees the result as evidence of an 'alternative majority' in Italy. The perceived alignment of Meloni with figures like former U.S. President Donald Trump and his policies also might have indirectly influenced public sentiment, contributing to the erosion of public confidence. The path forward for Meloni's government is now expected to be more challenging, as she navigates a shifting political landscape and faces increased pressure to address voter concerns more effectively.

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