The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) asserts that the ongoing U.S.-Venezuelan conflict will have a negligible impact on India's trade and energy security. This assessment follows a major U.S. military operation on January 4, 2026, where American forces reportedly captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, transporting them to the U.S. to face various charges, including narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, India's trade with Venezuela has drastically collapsed since 2019 due to escalating U.S. sanctions, which compelled India to reduce oil imports and scale back commercial activities to avoid secondary sanctions. In FY2025, India's total imports from Venezuela amounted to just $364.5 million, a significant drop from previous years. Crude oil imports, which once formed the bulk of bilateral trade, fell by 81.3% to $255.3 million in FY2025 from $1.4 billion in FY2024. India's exports to Venezuela were modest, at $95.3 million, predominantly comprising pharmaceutical products. Historically, India was a major importer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s, with imports reaching as high as $13 billion in 2013. However, the substantial decline in recent years means that current geopolitical disturbances are unlikely to have a material economic or energy impact on India. India has responded to the U.S. actions with calls for restraint, regional stability, and peaceful dialogue, avoiding condemnation of the U.S. Despite the immediate negligible impact, some analysts suggest that a stabilized Venezuela under a new regime could present future opportunities for Indian energy firms, particularly in the restructuring of Venezuela's vast oil sector. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Venezuela have begun exploring the possibility of restoring diplomatic relations following Maduro's ouster.