Global oil markets are experiencing a period of delicate balance, with prices holding largely steady in early trading on January 12, 2026, as investors carefully consider two major geopolitical influences. On one hand, intensifying anti-government protests in Iran have raised significant concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the OPEC producer. Rights groups reported over 500 fatalities in the unrest, and Iranian authorities have issued warnings against U.S. intervention, further escalating tensions. Analysts from ANZ estimate that at least 1.9 million barrels per day of Iran's oil exports are at risk of disruption, a substantial figure given Iran's role as a major oil producer. The possibility of disruptions to shipping routes, particularly through the vital Strait of Hormuz, is also contributing to market unease. Conversely, the market is assessing the potential for a resumption of oil exports from Venezuela. This follows the reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, and subsequent indications from U.S. officials about a possible relaxation of restrictions on Venezuela's oil industry. While a naval blockade initially halted Venezuelan exports after Maduro's capture, the shifting political landscape has led to expectations of additional barrels returning to international markets. Companies are reportedly actively seeking to secure tankers and operations to ship Venezuelan crude. Brent crude futures for March delivery edged slightly higher to approximately $63.39-$63.65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude also saw modest gains, trading around $59.15-$59.42 per barrel on Monday, January 12, 2026. This dual dynamic of potential supply risk from Iran and prospective supply increase from Venezuela is the primary driver of current market sentiment, reflecting a complex and uncertain outlook for global oil prices.