Global nuclear arsenals expand amid rising geopolitical tensions: SIPRI
A new SIPRI study reveals that the world's nine nuclear-armed states are expanding and modernizing their arsenals, increasing global nuclear risks. This trend reverses decades of disarmament efforts and is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, with China, India, Russia, and the US notably increasing their warhead numbers and capabilities.
Key Highlights
- Nine nuclear states are expanding and modernizing arsenals.
- Global nuclear risks are increasing due to modernization.
- China leads arsenal expansion; India also increases warheads.
- Geopolitical tensions are driving the nuclear arms race.
- Disarmament efforts are being reversed by nuclear powers.
- Spending on nuclear weapons has reached record highs.
The world is witnessing a concerning surge in nuclear capabilities, as the nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—are actively expanding and modernizing their arsenals. This trend, detailed in a recent study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), signals a worrying reversal of decades of disarmament efforts and a heightened risk of global instability. Geopolitical tensions, particularly exacerbated by conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza, are a significant driver behind this escalating nuclear arms race.
China, already possessing the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal, is expanding its capabilities faster than any other nation. SIPRI estimates indicate that China's arsenal increased from approximately 500 warheads in January 2024 to around 620 by January 2026, with projections of further growth. For the first time, China is also believed to have deployed a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime and may have some warheads on high operational alert. The report suggests China could possess as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia or the US by the end of the decade, though its warhead stockpile will likely remain smaller.
India, while not expanding its arsenal as rapidly as China, has also seen a slight increase in its nuclear warheads. Estimates suggest India's arsenal grew to around 180 warheads in 2024 and further to 190 in 2026. Notably, for the first time, India has moved 12 nuclear warheads into a deployed operational status, a significant shift from its previous practice of keeping warheads separate from delivery systems. This deployment, though limited, indicates a potential change in India's nuclear posture, even as it maintains its no-first-use policy and continues to develop a nuclear triad for a credible second-strike capability.
Russia and the United States continue to possess the overwhelming majority of global nuclear warheads, accounting for approximately 83-90% of the total. Both nations are engaged in extensive modernization programs, replacing and upgrading their delivery systems and warheads. Despite gradual dismantling of retired warheads, their extensive modernization efforts suggest an intent to increase the size and diversity of their arsenals in the future. The US, in particular, is undertaking a comprehensive modernization program estimated to cost over $1.7 trillion, aiming to replace nearly every component of its strategic nuclear arsenal.
The overall global inventory of nuclear warheads, while still seeing a slight decline due to dismantlement efforts by the US and Russia, is now characterized by an increasing number of operational warheads kept on high alert. As of January 2026, the nine nuclear powers possessed an estimated 12,187 warheads, with approximately 9,745 in military stockpiles. Of these, over 4,000 were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and up to 2,200 were kept on high alert, ready for rapid launch. The majority of these high-alert warheads belong to Russia and the US.
Spending on nuclear weapons has also surged to record highs, exceeding $100 billion annually. In 2024 alone, the nine nuclear-armed states spent over $100 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year. The United States remains the largest spender, allocating more than all other nuclear-armed states combined. This substantial financial investment underscores the growing reliance on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power and deterrence.
The SIPRI report highlights a concerning decline in transparency regarding nuclear forces among some states. This trend, coupled with the erosion of arms control treaties like the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and uncertainty surrounding others, paints a grim picture. The growing prominence of nuclear weapons in international relations, coupled with escalating conventional conflicts, has led researchers to warn that the world is drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history, with the risk of miscalculation and nuclear escalation at its highest since the Cold War. The lack of transparency and the ongoing modernization programs across nuclear-armed states suggest that the era of nuclear disarmament is ending, and a new, more perilous phase of nuclear competition is beginning.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main finding of the recent SIPRI study on nuclear weapons?
The study found that the world's nine nuclear-armed states are expanding and modernizing their arsenals, reversing decades of disarmament efforts and increasing global nuclear risks due to rising geopolitical tensions.
Which countries are significantly expanding their nuclear arsenals?
China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. India has also slightly increased its arsenal and deployed some warheads. Russia and the United States, while dismantling some older warheads, are extensively modernizing their existing arsenals.
Has India deployed nuclear warheads operationally?
Yes, for the first time, India has moved 12 nuclear warheads into a deployed operational status, meaning they are mounted on missiles or located at bases with operational forces. This signifies a potential shift in its nuclear posture.
How has global spending on nuclear weapons changed?
Spending on nuclear weapons has surged to record highs, exceeding $100 billion annually. In 2024, the nine nuclear-armed states spent over $100 billion, an 11% increase from the previous year, with the US being the largest spender.