India Stock Market: Q3 Earnings, Inflation, Trump Tariffs Key Triggers This Week | Quick Digest

India Stock Market: Q3 Earnings, Inflation, Trump Tariffs Key Triggers This Week | Quick Digest
The Indian stock market is set for a volatile week, driven by Q3 FY26 earnings, crucial inflation data from India and the US, and potential developments regarding former US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Persistent foreign institutional investor outflows are also a significant concern, contributing to a cautious market sentiment.

Q3 FY26 earnings of major Indian IT companies and Reliance Industries are in focus.

Upcoming releases include India's CPI, WPI, trade balance, and foreign exchange reserves data.

US inflation data (December CPI, November PPI) will significantly influence global market sentiment.

The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump-era tariffs is a key global trade policy development.

Continued Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows have negatively impacted Indian equities.

Weak global cues and heightened uncertainty are contributing to market volatility.

The Indian stock market is poised for a pivotal week, with several key domestic and international factors expected to influence investor sentiment and market direction. A major trigger will be the release of third-quarter earnings for Fiscal Year 2025-26 (Q3 FY26), which covers the October-December 2025 period, from major Indian companies. Heavyweight IT firms such as HCL Technologies, TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro are scheduled to announce their results, with their performance and management commentary on client budgets and forward guidance being crucial for the broader market. Earnings from Reliance Industries Ltd are also highly anticipated, given its significant weight in benchmark indices. On the macroeconomic front, important inflation data both domestically and internationally will be closely watched. India is set to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for December 2025, alongside trade balance and foreign exchange reserves figures. Globally, the United States will release its December CPI data and November Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which are critical for shaping global risk appetite and monetary policy expectations. Geopolitical and trade developments, particularly concerning former US President Donald Trump, are another significant trigger. The US Supreme Court is expected to deliver decisions on January 14, including a challenge to Trump's broad global tariff measures, which could redefine US trade policy and have ripple effects on emerging markets like India. Additionally, concerns over potential new tariffs on Indian rice imports have surfaced, adding to trade tensions. The preceding week saw Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, closing in the red for the fifth consecutive session, largely due to weak global cues, caution ahead of the earnings season, and persistent foreign fund outflows. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have continued to be net sellers in early January, further impacting market performance.
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