US-Israel Strikes on Iran Escalate, Half of India's Oil Imports at Risk

The Middle East is experiencing a critical escalation following joint US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, which commenced on February 28, 2026, and continued into March 1, 2026. This unprecedented military operation has profoundly impacted global geopolitics and energy markets, with significant repercussions for countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, particularly India. Credible reports confirm that the strikes targeted various sites across Iran, including key officials and military facilities. Notably, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly killed in the attack, a development announced by then-President Donald Trump and later confirmed by Iranian state television. This audacious attack, codenamed 'Roaring Lion' by Israel and 'Operation Epic Fury' by the United States Department of Defense, aims at significant regime change objectives, as articulated by President Trump's call for the Iranian people to overthrow their government. In response, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes against US military bases in the region, including in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, and also targeted Israel. The primary concern stemming from this conflict is the potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea passage situated between Iran and Oman. This waterway is unequivocally recognized as the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It handles an estimated 20-25% of global crude oil supply, with approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil, condensates, and refined petroleum products transiting through it daily. Major oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE depend heavily on this strait to export their crude oil to Asian markets and beyond, as there are limited practical alternatives for oil transit out of the region. For India, the stakes are exceptionally high. The original article's claim that 'Half of India's oil imports at risk' is largely accurate and corroborated by multiple sources. Data from analytics firm Kpler indicates that nearly 50% of India's total monthly crude oil imports transited through the Strait of Hormuz during January–February 2026. This figure represents an increase from approximately 40% in late 2025. This heightened dependence is attributed to India's recent recalibration of its crude procurement strategy, wherein refiners have pivoted away from a portion of Russian volumes and returned to traditional Middle Eastern suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. In terms of volume, roughly 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of India's crude imports currently flow through this route. A disruption, even a temporary one, in the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and severe implications for India's energy security and broader economy. Experts warn of a sharp geopolitical risk premium on oil markets, leading to higher Brent crude prices. Prices had already risen to $72-73 per barrel after the strikes, from around $65 previously, with predictions of further increases if tensions persist. Every $10 per barrel increase in crude prices could add an estimated $13-14 billion annually to India's import bill, further straining the rupee and fiscal balances. Beyond crude oil, about half of India's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies also transit through the Strait of Hormuz, adding another layer of vulnerability. India's substantial non-oil exports, amounting to over $47.6 billion, or about 13.2% of its total non-oil exports, are also dependent on shipping routes linked to the Strait, exposing the country to significant trade risks. The perceived danger in the area is already affecting maritime traffic, with several oil majors and trading houses reportedly suspending crude oil and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. India has activated contingency plans to safeguard its energy supplies. These pre-emptive measures include strengthening strategic oil reserves, diversifying imports from 41 countries, and exploring alternative infrastructure. Potential bypass routes include Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and the UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah, both designed to circumvent Hormuz, though they have finite capacities. New Delhi is also reportedly accelerating purchases from alternative suppliers outside the Gulf and bolstering long-term contracts. If Middle Eastern supplies become severely constrained, India might be compelled to increase its purchases of Russian crude once again. The ongoing conflict represents a critical juncture in international relations, with an immediate and unfolding impact on global energy markets and significant, direct implications for India's economic stability and energy security. The situation remains highly volatile, necessitating close monitoring and adaptive strategies from India and the global community.

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