SIPRI 2026: Global Nuclear Risks Soar, India Deploys Warheads for First Time

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual assessment, the SIPRI Yearbook 2026, on June 8, 2026, highlighting a alarming global trend: states are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power, reversing decades of efforts towards disarmament. The report warns of heightened escalation risks and a growing danger of miscalculation in the current geopolitical landscape. This critical assessment covers the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security, with a particular focus on the modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals by the world's nine nuclear-armed states. A key finding of the SIPRI Yearbook 2026, which has garnered significant attention in India, is the unprecedented assessment that India may have operationally deployed 12 nuclear warheads for the first time during peacetime. This revelation suggests a substantial shift in India's long-standing nuclear posture. Traditionally, India has maintained its nuclear warheads and their delivery systems in separate storage, a practice known as a de-mated posture. This approach was understood to enhance safety, reduce the risk of accidental use, and signal strategic restraint. However, the SIPRI report indicates that India's recent moves, including the development of 'canisterised' missiles—which can be transported with mated warheads and fired without extensive preparation—along with sea-based deterrence patrols, point towards a potential shift to mating some warheads with their launchers in peacetime. Such a change would imply a greater level of operational readiness for a portion of India's nuclear arsenal. While SIPRI's assessment underscores a potential evolution in India's operational nuclear posture, it is important to note that the Indian government has not officially acknowledged or confirmed these specific deployments or any formal change in its nuclear doctrine. The SIPRI Yearbook 2026 also estimates that India's total nuclear arsenal has increased to approximately 190 warheads as of January 2026, up from 180 in the previous year. This increase is seen as part of India's ongoing modernization program, which is increasingly focused on developing longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China, while also maintaining its deterrent posture against Pakistan. Pakistan, too, continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2025, indicating a potential expansion of its nuclear arsenal in the coming decade. Globally, the report paints a grim picture of nuclear armaments. As of January 2026, the total global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated at 12,187. Of these, about 9,745 were held in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 4,012 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and between 2,100 and 2,200 of these deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, primarily belonging to Russia and the USA. China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, may now also occasionally deploy a small number of warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime. SIPRI Director Karim Haggag emphasized the concerning trend where influential voices, including some world leaders, advocate for nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack. He warned that making national defense and security strategies more dependent on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks. The report further highlights a dangerous new nuclear arms race emerging at a time when arms control regimes are severely weakened, with the expiry of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia contributing to increased uncertainty. This comprehensive analysis by SIPRI underscores a period of growing international instability, characterized by military build-ups and a deepening reliance on nuclear deterrence across the globe.

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