Iran Power Shift: IRGC Assumes De Facto Control Amidst Middle East War

Amidst the escalating Middle East war, reports from multiple credible news outlets, including The Indian Express, suggest that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively assumed de facto control over key governmental functions, leading to a 'complete political deadlock' for President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration. [2, 3, 4, 7, 18] This significant power shift is characterized by the IRGC's obstruction of presidential appointments and decisions, a move that has severely limited the government's executive authority. [2, 3, 5, 7, 18] The primary catalyst for this development appears to be the uncertainty surrounding the status of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Following the reported death of his father, Ali Khamenei, and his own subsequent ascent, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly, leading to widespread speculation about his health and capacity to govern. [2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11, 17, 18] Informed sources indicate that a 'military council' composed of senior IRGC officers is now exercising full control over the core decision-making structure. This council has reportedly erected a security cordon around Mojtaba Khamenei, restricting access to him and controlling the flow of information, thereby preventing government reports from reaching the highest authority. [2, 6, 7, 11, 17, 18] A notable instance of the IRGC's intervention occurred when President Pezeshkian's attempt to appoint a new intelligence minister was reportedly blocked due to direct pressure from IRGC chief-commander Ahmad Vahidi. Vahidi is said to have insisted that, given the wartime conditions, all critical leadership positions must be managed directly by the IRGC. [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 17] Traditionally, such appointments require the Supreme Leader's approval, but the current ambiguity surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei's condition has allowed the IRGC to consolidate its grip over the security apparatus and other sensitive portfolios. [3, 4, 10] Serious disagreements have also emerged between President Pezeshkian and the IRGC leadership regarding the management of the war and its economic consequences. Pezeshkian has reportedly criticized the IRGC's approach to escalating tensions and continuing attacks, warning about the detrimental economic impact on Iran. [2] The IRGC, on the other hand, appears to be leveraging the ongoing conflict as a justification for its increased control, asserting that a wartime environment necessitates direct oversight of all critical state functions by its leadership. [2, 5, 6, 11] The IRGC's expansive role is not entirely new, as the organization has historically wielded significant political and economic influence, often operating with a degree of autonomy from elected officials and reporting directly to the Supreme Leader. [9, 10, 12] However, the current situation represents an unprecedented consolidation of power, where the IRGC is openly sidelining the civilian government and controlling key executive decisions. [17, 18] The IRGC was established to defend the revolution and has evolved into a powerful entity that manages significant portions of Iran's military capabilities, including its ballistic missile program and the Quds Force. [9, 10, 12] Its influence extends to economic sectors as well, giving it substantial leverage within the country. [9, 12] The broader context of the Middle East war, which has been ongoing since February 28, 2026, with Iran facing attacks from the US and Israel, plays a crucial role in this internal power struggle. [7, 16] This external pressure creates a climate of heightened security and instability, which the IRGC can exploit to justify its assertive stance and claim necessity for direct control over governance. [11] Reports indicate that Iran has also threatened to target US companies in retaliation for attacks, highlighting the volatile regional dynamics and the IRGC's prominent role in shaping Iran's response. [13, 20] The situation underscores the fragility of Iran's civilian leadership amid a wartime environment and internal succession disputes. With the Supreme Leader's position uncertain and the President's authority significantly curtailed, the IRGC has emerged as the dominant force, dictating policy and control within the Islamic Republic. [8, 17, 18]

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