Iran: Assessing Limits of US Power Amidst Internal Unrest | Quick Digest

Iran: Assessing Limits of US Power Amidst Internal Unrest | Quick Digest
American power faces significant limitations in shaping outcomes in Iran, particularly amidst the regime's enduring resilience despite protests and the questionable efficacy of sanctions. Recent military actions and diplomatic efforts highlight the complex challenges in influencing Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional behavior.

US sanctions have largely failed to halt Iran's nuclear program or destabilize the regime.

Iran's internal protests, though widespread, haven't yet posed an existential threat to the regime.

US military strikes have had limited long-term impact on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Iran continues to expand its nuclear program, enriching uranium to high levels.

The regime leverages external pressures to consolidate power domestically and crack down on dissent.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled, with Iran unwilling to renegotiate under current conditions.

The notion of American power's limits concerning Iran is increasingly evident, as U.S. policies have faced persistent challenges in achieving their stated objectives. While the exact article titled "Iran and the Limits of American Power - Foreign Affairs" was not found in real-time searches, analyses from highly credible sources, including the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which publishes Foreign Affairs, provide a comprehensive view on this topic. U.S. sanctions, a cornerstone of American policy, have demonstrably impacted Iran's economy, but experts widely agree they have largely failed to achieve their primary goals of halting Iran's nuclear program or fundamentally altering the regime's behavior. Instead, some analyses suggest sanctions have inadvertently strengthened the Iranian state by consolidating power within government-owned entities and fueling black markets, while disproportionately harming the Iranian middle class. Iran's nuclear program has continued to advance, with the country enriching uranium to high purities, far exceeding limits set by the defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Internally, Iran has experienced significant and widespread protests, especially in late 2025 and early 2026, driven by economic grievances, environmental concerns, and political discontent. While these protests represent a serious challenge to the regime and signal deep public anger, most analyses suggest that the Iranian security forces remain robust and capable of suppressing dissent, and the protest movement, though broad, currently lacks the centralized leadership to pose an immediate existential threat to the regime's survival. The regime has responded with increased force and lethality to suppress these movements, demonstrating its commitment to retaining power. Recent military actions, such as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-2025, also highlight the limitations of coercive power. While these strikes inflicted damage and set back parts of Iran's program, they did not destroy it, and Iran responded by further accelerating its nuclear advancements and refusing IAEA inspections at affected sites. Diplomatic avenues for a new nuclear deal or broader engagement remain largely stalled, with Iran indicating unwillingness to negotiate under existing U.S. demands. The overarching theme is that despite significant American pressure, Iran's regime has demonstrated remarkable resilience, adapting to sanctions, repressing internal dissent, and continuing its strategic objectives, thereby underscoring the complex and often limited effectiveness of American power in this geopolitical landscape.
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