India's FY27 Nominal Growth May Be Pegged at 10% in Budget 2026 | Quick Digest

India's FY27 Nominal Growth May Be Pegged at 10% in Budget 2026 | Quick Digest
India's government is reportedly considering a 10% nominal GDP growth projection for the upcoming Financial Year 2026-27 (FY27) in Budget 2026, an increase from the estimated 8% for the current fiscal year. This projection is crucial for fiscal planning and reflects expectations of robust economic momentum and rising inflation.

Government may project 10% nominal GDP growth for FY27 in Budget 2026.

Current fiscal year's nominal growth estimated at a five-year low of 8%.

Projection driven by expected economic momentum and rising inflation due to base effects.

Nominal GDP is vital for fiscal deficit and tax collection targets.

Other reports also project strong real and nominal growth for FY27.

Union Budget 2026-27 is scheduled to be presented on February 1, 2026.

India's Union Budget for Financial Year 2026-27 (FY27) is likely to project a nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of around 10%, according to an official familiar with early budget deliberations cited by The Economic Times. This represents a potential acceleration from the estimated 8% nominal growth for the current fiscal year (FY26), which was pegged at a five-year low in the first advance estimates. The article, published on January 10, 2026, emphasizes that nominal GDP, which includes inflation, serves as a critical benchmark for fiscal planning, influencing key indicators like fiscal deficit, debt-to-GDP ratio, and tax buoyancy. The government anticipates that strong economic momentum will persist, while inflation is expected to rise in FY27, largely due to an unfavorable base effect, further contributing to higher nominal growth. Officials believe nominal expansion could potentially surpass 10% in FY27, though a more conservative assumption might be adopted in the budget. For context, nominal growth was 9.8% in FY25, while real GDP expanded 6.5%. These projections are corroborated by other economic reports. India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) projects India's economy to grow at 6.9% in FY27, while its nominal GDP for FY26 is seen rising by about 9%. Goldman Sachs estimates India's real GDP growth at 6.8% for FY27, with private consumption strengthening. Dun & Bradstreet also forecasts India's real GDP growth at 6.6% in FY27. Additionally, one chief economist cited by The Indian Express expects nominal growth to reach 10.5-11% for the next fiscal year (FY27). The Union Budget 2026-27 is scheduled for presentation on February 1, 2026, making these growth projections highly relevant for the nation's economic outlook and policy direction. The expected rise in nominal growth provides the government with greater fiscal flexibility to meet deficit targets and support public spending.
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