New START Expires: US-Russia Nuclear Arms Control Ends, Global Impact

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which served as the cornerstone of nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia for over a decade, officially expired on February 5, 2026. This development marks the first time since 1972 that there are no legally binding limits on the deployed strategic nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers. The treaty, signed in Prague on April 8, 2010, and effective from February 5, 2011, aimed to cap deployed strategic nuclear warheads and bombs at 1,550 for each nation, along with limits on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers. It also included robust verification procedures, such as on-site inspections and data exchanges, to ensure compliance and build trust. However, the treaty's efficacy began to wane even before its expiration. On February 21, 2023, Russia announced its suspension of participation in New START. While Russia stated it was not withdrawing entirely from the treaty and would continue to observe the numerical limits, this suspension effectively halted the crucial on-site inspections and data exchanges, significantly undermining the transparency and verification regime. The US State Department acknowledged that while Russia's actions constituted non-compliance with the verification requirements, Russia was generally assessed to have remained within the treaty's numerical limits, though at times it may have slightly exceeded them. The reasons cited by Russia for its suspension included accusations that the US and NATO sought to inflict a 'strategic defeat' on Russia, along with claims of the US rejecting Russian requests for inspection visits. The US, in turn, stated that Moscow was not complying by not allowing inspections. The initial New START treaty was set for a 10-year duration, with an option for a five-year extension. In a critical move, then-US President Joe Biden agreed to a full five-year extension with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 3, 2021, pushing its expiration date to February 5, 2026. Prior to this, during the Trump administration, calls from Russia for an extension were rejected, with former President Donald Trump expressing interest in a new, broader treaty that would include China. Even in the run-up to the 2026 expiration, Trump reportedly commented positively on the idea of nuclear restraint but did not commit to continued compliance, indicating that the treaty's expiration was not a priority. The expiration of New START has been met with widespread concern from international organizations and security experts. Organizations like The Elders have urged the US and Russia to halt a destabilizing nuclear arms race, highlighting that the collapse of New START, along with previous treaties like the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaties, leaves no framework for nuclear arms control between the two powers. This vacuum is feared to lead to an unconstrained nuclear competition, driven by worst-case planning and potential nuclear expansion, coupled with reduced transparency and increased mistrust. Such an environment significantly elevates global proliferation risks, especially at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, as seen in Ukraine and West Asia. For India, the implications are particularly significant. The NDTV article correctly highlights that India finds itself 'sandwiched between two nuclear rivals – China and Pakistan'. The uncapping of US and Russian arsenals could prompt China to further accelerate its own nuclear build-up, which is already a concern, and potentially influence Pakistan's nuclear strategy. This situation could compel India to reassess its own credible minimum deterrent capability and strategic autonomy, irrespective of the arms control dynamics between the great powers. The global nuclear landscape, without the restraints of New START, becomes more unpredictable, potentially impacting India's security calculations and its long-standing position on non-proliferation and disarmament. Experts warn that a world with fewer arms control mechanisms is a more dangerous one, where the risk of nuclear conflict increases due to misunderstandings and an accelerated arms race. Despite the expiration, there were ongoing negotiations, and a possibility remained for the US and Russia to informally agree to continue observing the treaty's central limits, even without the verification component, although such an arrangement would require presidential approval. Russia had expressed a willingness to observe the limits for an additional year post-expiration, provided the US reciprocated and refrained from actions undermining strategic balance. However, as of February 5, 2026, no such formal agreement was in place, leaving the future of US-Russia nuclear arms control uncertain and casting a long shadow over global security.

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