Indian Stock Market: Key Triggers This Week (Feb 9-15, 2026)

The Indian stock market is anticipated to experience an event-driven and potentially volatile week from February 9 to February 15, 2026, as investors assess several significant domestic and international developments. Key triggers include forthcoming inflation data, the implications of the recently concluded India-US trade deal, and the ongoing third-quarter corporate earnings season for the financial year 2025-26 (Q3 FY26). Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) recent monetary policy decision and broader global cues will play a crucial role in dictating market sentiment. **Inflation Data to Take Center Stage** One of the primary domestic triggers for the Indian stock market this week is the release of crucial inflation data. Investors are keenly awaiting the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures, which are scheduled for release on February 12, 2026. This release is particularly significant as it will be compiled using a revised base year of 2024. This updated base is expected to provide a more accurate, relevant, and transparent reflection of current consumption patterns across both rural and urban India, thereby improving the quality of CPI estimates. Analysts are forecasting the year-on-year (YoY) CPI inflation for January to be around 2.0%, following 1.33% in December 2025. While the original Mint article suggested that Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data would be released on February 13, other credible sources, including the Press Information Bureau (PIB) and Investing.com, indicate that the WPI data for January 2026 is slated for release on February 16, 2026. Regardless of the exact date, both CPI and WPI figures will be closely watched for signs of inflationary pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its meeting from February 4-6, 2026, kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The RBI projected CPI inflation for FY26 at 2.1%, anticipating a rise to 3.2% in Q4 FY26 (January-March 2026) and further to 4.0-4.2% for Q1 and Q2 of FY27, citing unfavorable base effects. **India-US Trade Deal: A Catalyst for Sentiment** A major positive development for market sentiment is the recently announced India-US interim trade agreement. The deal, which saw an executive order signed by US President Donald Trump, reduces reciprocal tariffs on Indian imports to the US from a previous high of 50% (which included a 25% additional punitive duty imposed in August 2025) down to 18%. This agreement was formally announced around February 2-6, 2026. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that this reduction provides Indian exporters with a significant competitive advantage in the US market, especially when compared to higher duties faced by other nations like China. The agreement also safeguards India's agricultural and dairy sectors, with several Indian agricultural products like spices, tea, coffee, and mangoes set to attract zero duty in the United States. The government aims to significantly increase India-US bilateral trade in the coming years. This positive news had already contributed to a strong market recovery in the preceding week. However, the trade deal has also drawn criticism from farmer organizations, including the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), who view it as a "total surrender" of Indian agriculture to American multinational corporations and have called for nationwide protests on February 12. **Q3 FY26 Earnings Season Continues** The third major trigger for the Indian stock market this week is the continued flow of corporate earnings for the third quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (Q3 FY26), which ended on December 31, 2025. While a significant portion of Q3 results were announced in late January, many companies, including prominent ones, are still scheduled to report their performance this week. For instance, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) calendar shows numerous companies declaring their Q3 FY26 financial results on February 9, 2026. Investors will continue to focus on individual company performance, demand trends, and management commentaries to gauge the broader economic health and future growth prospects across various sectors. **Other Key Market Influencers** Beyond these three primary triggers, several other factors will influence the Indian stock market. The implications of the RBI's recent monetary policy decision, where the repo rate was kept unchanged at 5.25%, will continue to be absorbed by the market. The MPC maintained a 'neutral' stance, indicating flexibility for future policy adjustments based on evolving economic conditions. The Union Budget 2026-27, presented on February 1, 2026, will also continue to have its implications analyzed by market participants. Global market cues, including economic data from major economies and geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, will remain crucial. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) activity will also be closely monitored. While FIIs were net sellers on February 6, 2026, they have shown signs of turning net buyers in February, investing approximately ₹8,100 crore in a week, partly driven by optimism around the US trade deal. The movement of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar will also be a factor, as rupee appreciation could attract further FII inflows. Overall, market experts anticipate a cautiously optimistic sentiment, with markets expected to remain event-driven and prone to consolidation in the near term. Sector-specific movements, rather than broad-based rallies, are likely to dominate, as companies' execution reflected in their earnings becomes a key differentiator.

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