TMC, Shiv Sena (UBT) Rebellions Shift Parliament Numbers, NDA Gains Edge

Recent political developments, marked by significant internal dissent and defections within the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) factions, are reshaping the parliamentary landscape in India. These shifts have bolstered the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), bringing it closer to achieving a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha, though its position in the Lok Sabha remains short of this critical threshold. The original article highlights how these defections could benefit the NDA in Parliament, particularly concerning the passage of major constitutional amendments like the Delimitation Bill and the Women's Reservation Bill. Reports indicate that several MPs from the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) have either resigned or are reportedly considering extending support to the NDA. Specifically, the TMC has seen three Rajya Sabha MPs resign: Sukhendu Sekhar Ray, Sushmita Dev, and Prakash Chik Baraik. In the Lok Sabha, reports suggest a larger number of TMC MPs are part of a rebel faction. Similarly, within Shiv Sena (UBT), six out of nine Lok Sabha MPs reportedly skipped a parliamentary party meeting, signaling internal unrest and potential realignment. As of June 18, 2026, the NDA holds approximately 293 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. To achieve a two-thirds majority, which is crucial for passing constitutional amendments, the NDA would need around 360 seats. Even if all reported rebel MPs from the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) were to lend their support, the NDA's strength in the Lok Sabha could rise to approximately 316, still falling short by over 40 seats. This insufficient number means that the NDA cannot unilaterally pass constitutional amendments and would require broader consensus from opposition parties. The Rajya Sabha presents a different picture. The NDA's strength is reported to be around 149-152 members, with the potential to reach 155. This brings the alliance closer to the two-thirds majority mark in the 245-member House, which requires approximately 163 seats for such a majority. The resignations of TMC MPs have created vacancies that the NDA is expected to win in by-elections, further boosting its numbers in the Upper House. However, the primary impact of these numbers is on the ability to pass crucial legislation. The Women's Reservation Bill, which aims to reserve one-third of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, was passed by both Houses in 2023 but requires a subsequent delimitation exercise for implementation. The Delimitation Bill, along with a related constitutional amendment bill to increase the Lok Sabha's strength, was introduced in April 2026 but failed to secure the necessary two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. The failure to pass these bills highlights the NDA's current numerical limitations in the Lower House. The government's attempts to redraw electoral boundaries and increase the size of Parliament, tied to the women's reservation, faced strong opposition due to concerns about shifting political power and the basis for delimitation (population data from the 2011 census). [3, 11, 14, 19, 23, 27] The current political climate, with defections and internal party crises, underscores the fluid nature of parliamentary alliances. While the NDA's numerical strength is growing, especially in the Rajya Sabha, the core issue of passing constitutional amendments remains dependent on securing wider support. The article's premise is that the rebellions within the TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) have positively impacted the NDA's numbers, but the overall situation indicates that a two-thirds majority for unilateral legislative action, particularly in the Lok Sabha, is still a distant goal. The situation remains focused on parliamentary arithmetic rather than confirmed political realignments, with the long-term implications of these shifts for future legislation and governance yet to be fully determined.

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