Iran's IRGC Dominance Post-Leadership Losses Amidst War

The political landscape of Iran has been dramatically reshaped by a series of high-profile assassinations and an ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. The deaths of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, and Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on March 17, 2026, have plunged the Islamic Republic into its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution [29, 30, 33]. The vacuum left by these key figures has significantly amplified the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Previously a powerful entity, the IRGC is now widely considered to be the de facto governing force in Iran [2, 17, 28, 33]. Analysts suggest that with the elder Khamenei gone and his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, struggling to assert authority, the IRGC hardliners are likely dominating the political scene [29, 33]. This shift in power dynamics is occurring amidst intense factional rivalries, leading to conflicting directives and stalled decision-making within the government [29]. Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei's son, was elevated to the position of Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026, following his father's assassination [20, 29, 30, 33]. However, his absence from public view since the strikes, coupled with reports of potential injury, has cast doubt on his ability to effectively control the state [29, 33, 34]. The IRGC's deep entanglement in Iran's political, economic, and military spheres positions it to fill this leadership void [2, 17, 25, 28]. Ali Larijani's assassination on March 17, 2026, was a particularly devastating blow, removing a crucial link between the clerical establishment, the IRGC, and the reformist-leaning government of President Masoud Pezeshkian [29]. Larijani was considered one of the most powerful figures remaining after Khamenei's death and was seen as a stabilizing influence [4, 5, 9, 33]. His elimination has further exacerbated the leadership crisis and fractured the already strained command and control structure of Iran [29]. The IRGC, originally formed to protect the Islamic Revolution, has evolved into a powerful organization with significant economic interests and a vast network of proxy militias [2, 17, 31]. It plays a central role in domestic repression and regional aggression [2, 31]. With the regular military and civilian leadership weakened or eliminated, the IRGC's military and intelligence capabilities are now paramount in the ongoing conflict [17, 25, 28]. The sustained Israeli and US strikes have severely damaged Iran's leadership and military infrastructure [10, 13, 16, 35]. While Iran has shown resilience in attempting to replace fallen leaders and maintain its military operations, the loss of key figures like Khamenei and Larijani has undeniably weakened its command and control [29, 30]. The question of who is truly running Iran remains uncertain, with many analysts pointing to the IRGC as the dominant, albeit unconfirmed, power [29, 33, 34]. This situation has significant implications for regional stability, as Iran, under the likely influence of the IRGC, continues its confrontational stance against the US and Israel, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz [37]. The long-term consequences for Iran's political direction and its ability to manage internal dissent and external threats remain to be seen, but the IRGC's ascent to the forefront of power is a clear outcome of the recent upheavals.

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