An analysis from The Hindu, published on January 10, 2026, suggests that India's potential pivot away from Russian oil imports would currently have a limited fiscal impact. This is primarily attributed to prevailing low global crude oil prices and a significant reduction in the discount India receives on Russian oil, which has considerably shrunk compared to three years ago. In November 2025, India received an average discount of $16.1 per tonne from Russia, a stark contrast to the $40.3 per tonne discount in November 2022. During the same period, the premium on American oil imports remained relatively stable. Experts largely concur with this assessment. Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative notes that the price differential for Russian oil has 'evaporated,' making a shift economically less impactful. Puneet Kumar from EY-Parthenon India also acknowledges that while Russian oil constitutes about 35% of India's imports, the risk from reducing these volumes is currently offset by low global prices. However, he cautions that factors like rupee depreciation and increased logistics costs from the U.S. could partially negate these fiscal gains. The context for this discussion includes mounting pressure from the United States. Proposed legislation like the 'Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025' threatens tariffs of up to 500% on goods from countries continuing to heavily import Russian oil, including India. This geopolitical pressure is already influencing India's procurement strategy, with major refiners like Reliance Industries reportedly halting Russian crude deliveries for December 2025 and January 2026. India has responded by actively diversifying its crude import sources, significantly increasing supplies from the US and the Middle East, a strategy aimed at enhancing energy security and reducing reliance on any single supplier. While Russia remained a top supplier through much of 2025, its share began to rebalance by the year's end. Despite current resilience, analysts warn that a sustained reduction in discounted Russian oil, especially if global prices rebound or tariffs materialize, could increase India's annual import bill by an estimated $9-11 billion, underscoring the delicate balance India maintains between economic interests and geopolitical alignments.