IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Heatwave Days Across India This Summer

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a stark warning of an above-normal number of heatwave days across large swathes of India for the period between March and May 2026. While March is anticipated to begin with relatively moderate temperatures for much of the country, offering a temporary respite, the summer months are expected to bring prolonged spells of high temperatures and increased heatwave activity. This forecast has prompted advisories for states and district administrations to enhance preparedness measures. The IMD's monthly forecast indicates that the March-April-May (MAM) season will likely witness an above-normal number of heatwave days over most parts of east and east-central India, many areas of the southeast peninsula, and some regions of northwest and west-central India. In contrast, the remaining parts of the country are expected to experience a normal number of heatwave days during this period. Specifically for March 2026, isolated regions of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are predicted to experience above-normal heatwave days, while the rest of the country is expected to remain within normal limits for the month. However, the overall trend points towards a hotter-than-usual summer across the nation. The states identified as being particularly vulnerable to an increased number of heatwave days include West Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, southern and eastern Maharashtra, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of north Karnataka and north Tamil Nadu. In these states, the number of heatwave days could range from 3 to 15 days above normal. For instance, Tamil Nadu, including Chennai, might experience three to nine days of heatwaves along the coast, potentially extending to nine to 15 days in some northern districts. The IMD has emphasized that the increased likelihood of heatwave conditions during the MAM season poses significant risks to public health, water resources, power demand, and essential services. Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, children, outdoor workers, and individuals with pre-existing medical conditions, are at a heightened risk of heat-related illnesses. Elevated temperatures can lead to severe health issues and place additional stress on infrastructure and resource management systems. In response to these projections, the IMD has recommended that state authorities and district administrations ensure timely preparedness. This includes the operational readiness of cooling shelters, ensuring adequate drinking water supply, and strengthening health surveillance systems. Several states have already been developing or implementing Heat Action Plans to mitigate the impact of extreme heat. For example, Maharashtra has a strategic framework in place, and districts like Doda have also developed action plans focusing on early warning systems and community preparedness. The forecast also touches upon rainfall patterns. While normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated for many parts of the country in March, northeast India and some areas of northwest and east-central India might receive below-normal rainfall. The long-period average (LPA) of rainfall over India during March, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 29.9 mm. Meteorological factors influencing these predictions include the prevailing weak La Niña conditions over the equatorial Pacific, which are expected to weaken further, with neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions potentially returning. However, these oceanic patterns are not expected to significantly alter the short-term weather outlook for March in all regions, such as Chandigarh, which is forecast to experience largely normal conditions for the month. This forecast aligns with a broader trend of increasing heatwave frequency and intensity observed in India over the past several years, a phenomenon attributed in part to climate change. The IMD's criteria for declaring a heatwave typically involve maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C in the plains, or a deviation of at least 4.5°C above normal for two consecutive days. Severe heatwaves are declared when temperatures cross 45°C or exceed the normal by more than 6.4°C. The article's publication date is derived from the timestamps of the search results, indicating it was published around March 1-2, 2026. The source, The Times of India, is a reputable and credible news outlet in India. The information presented in the article is consistent with the forecasts and advisories issued by the IMD.

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