India and Pakistan Accelerate Nuclear Arms Modernization, SIPRI Reports

A recent report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), released on June 8, 2026, highlights that both India and Pakistan are engaged in the continued development of new types of nuclear weapon delivery systems. This ongoing modernization effort underscores a broader global trend where nuclear-armed states are increasingly relying on nuclear deterrence, reversing decades of efforts aimed at disarmament. According to the SIPRI Yearbook 2026, as of January 2026, India's nuclear arsenal is estimated to have grown to approximately 190 nuclear warheads, marking a slight increase from the previous year. This expansion aligns with India's strategic focus on developing longer-range weapon systems, particularly those capable of reaching targets across China, while maintaining its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan. India's nuclear weapons are now assigned to a maturing nuclear triad, encompassing aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs). The report also suggests that India may have begun to deploy a small number of nuclear warheads on a single SSBN conducting occasional deterrence patrols. Furthermore, India has recently fielded the Agni-V intermediate-range missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) capability, a technology that allows a single missile to deliver multiple warheads to different targets. Pakistan, on the other hand, maintained a stable nuclear stockpile of around 170 warheads as of January 2026. Despite the stable numbers, Pakistan continued to develop its nascent nuclear triad during 2025, comprising land-based, air-based, and sea-launched delivery systems. The SIPRI report indicates that Pakistan is also pursuing MIRV technology, with its medium-range Ababeel missile reportedly capable of delivering multiple warheads. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, in a separate report, has also detailed Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, emphasizing its focus on deterrence against India and the development of tactical nuclear options. The development of MIRV technology by both nations is particularly concerning. While serving as a powerful 'force multiplier,' it is widely viewed as one of the most destabilizing developments in nuclear strategy. This technology can potentially overwhelm missile defenses and enable the rapid destruction of multiple high-value military targets, thereby diminishing an adversary's ability to retaliate effectively. Such advancements heighten the risk of miscalculation and rapid escalation in a crisis, especially given the historical tensions between India and Pakistan. The SIPRI Yearbook 2026 also provided a global perspective, estimating the total nuclear inventory at 12,187 warheads in January 2026, with about 9,745 in military stockpiles for potential use. Approximately 4,012 of these warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft. The report warned that the increasing reliance on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power by all nine nuclear-armed states (the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel) is increasing the risks of miscalculation and escalation. The implications for regional stability in South Asia are significant. The continuous modernization of nuclear arsenals by both India and Pakistan, driven by mutual deterrence and evolving security challenges, has been a long-standing concern for international observers. The SIPRI report also referenced a military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May 2025, known as 'Operation Sindoor', involving Indian strikes on Pakistani air and missile bases. This incident, while kept at a conventional level, highlighted the lingering and serious concern of rapid, unexpected escalation to a nuclear level, particularly in an environment rife with disinformation. Reports from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists suggested that Pakistan's experience during this confrontation exposed the limitations of nuclear deterrence, prompting a potential shift towards greater focus on conventional military power. Both countries have historical stances on nuclear use: India maintains a 'No First Use' policy, though it has indicated a reconsideration of this in the past, while Pakistan has not declared such a policy, reserving the right to pre-emptive nuclear strikes due to perceived conventional force imbalances with India. The ongoing developments reinforce the urgent need for modernized confidence-building measures and renewed dialogue between India and Pakistan to mitigate the risks associated with these expanding and diversifying nuclear capabilities.

Frequently Asked Questions

Read Full Story on Quick Digest