Super El Niño intensifies, posing global extreme weather risks

The El Niño phenomenon has intensified rapidly and is now firmly established in the equatorial Pacific, with forecasters predicting it will strengthen further to become a "very strong" event by the end of 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an update stating there is a near 100% probability that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027, marking an unprecedented level of certainty in their forecasts. This event is shaping up to be one of the most intense in recent history, with some reports suggesting it could be the strongest in over a century. Scientists are increasingly linking the amplified impacts of El Niño to human-induced climate change. While climate change does not necessarily increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events themselves, a warmer ocean and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture, which can supercharge the associated extreme weather phenomena. Research indicates that an El Niño event of the same intensity is projected to cause greater reductions in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the future compared to the past, primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions. The current El Niño is forecast to become exceptionally strong, with sea surface temperatures in the critical Niño 3.4 region already significantly above average and potentially reaching levels not seen in decades. Some forecasts suggest that the sea surface temperature rise could exceed 3°C above normal, a level described as "unprecedented" and "unheard-of in modern climate records". The implications for India are particularly concerning. El Niño events are generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and warmer temperatures in the subcontinent. This year, August has already recorded a significant rainfall deficit of 16% and was the hottest August since 1901, with El Niño cited as a contributing factor. Experts warn that if El Niño persists into early 2027, India could face an enhanced risk of unusually warm pre-monsoon seasons and severe heatwaves. The Indian summer monsoon, which delivers about 80% of the country's annual rainfall, is critical for agriculture and the livelihoods of over a billion people. Studies suggest that the link between El Niño and drought in India is growing stronger under global warming, potentially leading to one-third greater reductions in monsoon rainfall in the future. This situation poses a significant threat to agricultural production, food security, and rural incomes. Globally, a very strong El Niño event is expected to significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather worldwide. This includes the potential for severe droughts in some regions, such as parts of South America and Southeast Asia, and intense rainfall and flooding in others. The economic consequences could be substantial, with crop failures and disruptions to supply chains potentially causing billions of dollars in global economic losses. The WMO is working with national meteorological services to enhance preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate these risks. The UN Secretary-General has urged the world to treat this as an "urgent climate warning". The El Niño phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, usually beginning between March and June and peaking between November and February. The current event began to emerge in mid-2026 and is expected to peak towards the end of the year and persist into early 2027. While previous El Niño events have had significant impacts, the combination of its predicted intensity and amplification by climate change makes this event particularly concerning. The WMO's emphasis on strengthening early warning systems underscores the critical need for proactive measures to address the anticipated climate extremes.

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