SIPRI 2026: India's Nuclear Arsenal Grows to 190 Warheads, Exceeds Pakistan

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual Yearbook 2026 on June 8, 2026, revealing significant developments in global nuclear arsenals, particularly focusing on the increasing reliance on nuclear weapons by states worldwide. The report, a comprehensive assessment of armaments, disarmament, and international security, underscores a reversal of decades-long efforts to reduce nuclear weapons, with heightened risks of miscalculation and escalation. For India, the SIPRI Yearbook 2026 estimates its nuclear arsenal to have grown to approximately 190 warheads as of January 2026. This marks a notable increase from the estimated 180 warheads reported in the SIPRI Yearbook 2025 (as of January 2025). In contrast, Pakistan's nuclear stockpile is estimated to have remained stable at around 170 warheads as of January 2026. This data indicates that India has not only maintained but also widened its nuclear lead over Pakistan, moving from a 10-warhead advantage to a 20-warhead advantage in the span of a year. The report details India's ongoing and extensive modernization program for its nuclear forces. This program is increasingly geared towards developing long-range weapon systems specifically capable of reaching targets across China, reflecting a strategic shift in India's deterrence planning. India is also actively pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, known as Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), a technology that significantly enhances the strike capability of its missile systems. Furthermore, SIPRI highlights that India's nuclear weapons are now assigned to a maturing nuclear triad, encompassing aircraft, land-based missiles, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). A crucial finding in the 2026 report suggests a potential shift in India's nuclear posture: SIPRI estimates that India may have begun to deploy a small number of nuclear warheads on a single SSBN conducting occasional deterrence patrols. This indicates a move away from the long-standing policy of storing nuclear warheads separately from their delivery systems during peacetime, potentially enhancing India's rapid response capabilities and second-strike credibility. Pakistan, while maintaining a stable number of warheads, has also continued its efforts to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material, indicating a likely expansion of its nuclear arsenal over the coming decade. The SIPRI report also referenced a brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, where India reportedly attacked Pakistani air and missile bases. However, both sides are noted to have taken deliberate steps to avoid escalation, underscoring the delicate balance of deterrence in the region. Globally, the SIPRI Yearbook 2026 paints a concerning picture of nuclear proliferation and modernization. The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel—all continued intensive programs to modernize and enhance their nuclear arsenals in 2025. The total estimated global inventory of nuclear warheads stood at 12,187 in January 2026. Of these, approximately 9,745 were held in military stockpiles for potential use, with an estimated 4,012 warheads deployed with missiles and aircraft. China, in particular, saw its stockpile increase to 620 warheads from 600 a year earlier, with its nuclear arsenal expanding faster than any other country. The report emphasizes that influential voices, including some world leaders, are increasingly advocating for nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack, which significantly increases nuclear risks. This trend, coupled with the erosion of arms control frameworks, signals a dangerous new era in international security where the number of operational nuclear warheads is rising year-on-year. The findings by SIPRI serve as a stark warning about the growing prominence of nuclear weapons in national defense strategies and the potential for a new arms race.

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