US-Iran Conflict: Indian Markets, Gold, Silver React to Israel-Iran Strikes

The article from Mint, dated February 28, 2026, analyzes the potential repercussions of escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran on the Indian financial landscape. Coordinated strikes by Israel and the US on Iran on February 28, 2026, have plunged the Middle East into renewed military confrontation, leading to widespread global market uncertainty. Experts anticipate that this geopolitical instability will negatively affect India's stock market, with a likely weak opening and potential for a gap-down on Monday, March 2, 2026. However, prior selling on Friday, February 27, 2026, might mitigate a sharp sell-off. The heightened geopolitical risks are driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, signaling a potential gap-up opening for these commodities. Market expert Anuj Gupta suggests that if COMEX gold surpasses the $5,300/oz resistance, Indian gold prices could climb to ₹1,68,000-₹1,70,000 per 10 grams. Similarly, a sustained rise in COMEX silver above $95/oz could push Indian silver rates to ₹3,00,000 per kg. Fundamental equity analyst Avinash Gorakshkar foresees a bearish sentiment influencing Dalal Street, leading to weaker trading trends. The critical Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil trade, is a significant concern. Any disruption to this waterway due to the conflict could dramatically inflate oil prices, posing a substantial economic challenge for India, which heavily depends on crude oil imports. Reports indicate that the Iranian Navy has advised vessels to avoid transiting the Strait, and some ships have already halted their journeys, suggesting potential impacts on tanker schedules, freight rates, and insurance premiums. Historically, geopolitical events, including border disputes, trade conflicts, and global wars, have consistently influenced Indian markets, triggering volatility and altering investor sentiment. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, for example, led to sharp increases in oil and gold prices, affecting India's inflation and currency. The US-China trade war also presented a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities for the Indian economy. The article underscores that while market reactions are speculative, the prevailing sentiment is one of caution and risk aversion. Investors are advised to closely monitor crude oil prices as a key indicator of market movements. Some experts recommend a 'buy on dips' strategy for long-term investors, while others suggest a 'wait-and-watch' approach, trimming existing positions until greater clarity emerges. The broader geopolitical context involves the US and Israel initiating 'major combat operations' against Iran, with President Trump citing the elimination of imminent threats and prevention of nuclear proliferation as objectives. Iran has responded with missile attacks targeting Israel and US bases across the Middle East, intensifying regional tensions amidst ongoing nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. Historical precedents, such as the India-China Galwan Valley clash and the Russia-Ukraine war, illustrate how geopolitical events can cause short-term market corrections, with markets often demonstrating resilience. However, prolonged conflicts tend to have more substantial and lasting impacts. The interconnected global economy ensures that events in the Middle East have far-reaching consequences for markets worldwide, including India. In essence, the February 28, 2026, attacks by Israel and the US on Iran have created significant geopolitical uncertainty. This is anticipated to result in a cautious opening for the Indian stock market on March 2, 2026, with a potential gap-down. Conversely, gold and silver prices are expected to surge as investors gravitate towards safe-haven assets amidst the heightened tensions. The stability of the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global oil prices remain a critical factor to observe.

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