Former US President Donald Trump recently announced a new threat to impose a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, a move made via a Truth Social post on January 13, 2026. This declaration has sparked immediate concern among global trading partners, including India. However, analysis from various Indian news outlets, including The Hindu and The Economic Times, suggests that the overall macroeconomic impact on India is expected to be limited. India's trade relationship with Iran has already seen a significant decline since 2019, primarily due to previous US sanctions that led India to cease crude oil imports from the nation. Current bilateral trade stands at a relatively small figure, approximately $1.68 billion in 2024-25, constituting only about 0.15% of India's total trade. While the broader economic impact may be contained, specific sectors are bracing for disruption. Indian exports such as basmati rice, tea, fresh fruits, and essential oils, for which Iran is a notable market, are likely to face short-term challenges, including cargo delays, increased logistics costs, and payment risks. Industry experts and government sources indicate that a significant portion of India's exports to Iran consists of humanitarian goods, like food and pharmaceuticals, which often fall outside the direct scope of such sanctions, potentially offering some buffer. Furthermore, India's strategic involvement in the development of Iran's Chabahar Port, vital for regional connectivity, is currently seen as unlikely to be directly affected by these new tariffs, benefiting from past waivers, though the situation remains dynamic. Indian authorities are reportedly working on a framework to guide exporters through this evolving geopolitical landscape.