Atlantic SST Driven by Forcing, Pacific by Internal Variability | Quick Digest

Atlantic SST Driven by Forcing, Pacific by Internal Variability | Quick Digest
A scientific study suggests that multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Atlantic are primarily driven by external forces, while those in the Pacific are largely due to internal ocean-atmosphere dynamics. This finding, assessed using Rotated Low-Frequency Component Analysis, refines our understanding of global climate variability.

Atlantic SST variability is primarily linked to external forcing.

Pacific SST variability is largely attributed to internal oceanic processes.

Rotated Low-Frequency Component Analysis used to distinguish drivers.

Understanding these drivers is crucial for climate prediction.

Multidecadal SST changes have global climate impacts.

Research distinguishes between natural variability and forced responses.

A scientific article originating from ESS Open Archive details a significant assessment of multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability, concluding that these long-term changes are primarily externally forced in the Atlantic Ocean and largely a result of internal processes within the Pacific Ocean. Multidecadal climate variations, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), are well-established phenomena associated with large-scale global air-temperature anomalies. While the AMV has been historically debated as an internal oscillation, recent research, including studies on volcanic forcing and anthropogenic influences, increasingly points to external drivers for its variability. Conversely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often characterized as a robust pattern of internal ocean-atmosphere climate variability in the mid-latitude Pacific Basin. Although tropical Pacific forcing can play a role, internal atmospheric variability and ocean dynamics are considerable factors. The study employs Rotated Low-Frequency Component Analysis to differentiate between these forced and internal mechanisms. This distinction is crucial for enhancing the accuracy of climate models and improving predictions of future decadal changes, which have wide-ranging impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and human societies, including regional rainfall and hurricane activity. The ongoing scientific effort to separate natural multidecadal SST variability from radiatively forced changes remains a central challenge in climate science.
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