SIR Fallout Shifts Bengal Politics, Diminishes Anti-Incumbency: Sagarika Ghose

In a significant political analysis, Trinamool Congress (TMC) Rajya Sabha MP and prominent journalist-turned-politician, Sagarika Ghose, asserted that the fallout from the 'Special Intensive Revision' (SIR) exercise of electoral rolls has largely 'obliterated' localised anti-incumbency sentiments in West Bengal. This, she argues, has inadvertently handed the ruling TMC a distinct advantage over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming Assembly elections. Ghose, who is also one of the TMC's star campaigners, emphasized that while some discontent might exist at the local level against individual leaders, there is no widespread disenchantment against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee herself. According to Ghose, Mamata Banerjee remains a popular and accessible leader, consistently in touch with her constituents. She described Banerjee as a '24x7 politician' and a 'political phenomenon unique in South Asia,' highlighting her efforts in steering a 'political startup' in a challenging, patriarchal political environment without a legacy or mentor. Ghose also noted the TMC's commitment to women's leadership and safety, positioning it as a 'women-first party'. The TMC's strategic decision to drop 74 sitting MLAs, almost one-third of its legislative strength, from its list of 291 candidates declared on March 17, is seen as a calculated move to address and counter any existing localised anti-incumbency sentiments. This aligns with Ghose's assertion that discontent was primarily directed at a section of local leaders who have since been replaced as candidates in the elections. The 'SIR' exercise, referring to the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, has become a major point of contention in West Bengal politics. Mamata Banerjee and the TMC have vehemently criticized the Election Commission of India (ECI) and the BJP, alleging that the process is a deliberate attempt to 'snatch away voting rights' and amounts to a 'murder of democracy'. The Supreme Court has also weighed in on the matter, questioning why the SIR process has been so 'bumpy' in West Bengal compared to other states. Reports indicate a significant number of voter deletions under this exercise. While the official numbers for inclusions and deletions in the first supplementary list, published online on March 23, were not publicly stated, sources within the poll body claimed that approximately 40% of the 32 lakh voters scrutinized by judicial officers were removed from the rolls. This translates to an estimated 13 lakh additional voters deleted, bringing the total deletion figure to around 76 lakh, out of an initial 7.6 crore voters. This substantial purge, affecting about 10% of the electorate, has fueled the TMC's accusations of political foul play. Sagarika Ghose explicitly stated that the BJP's initial agenda was to leverage the SIR process to defeat Mamata Banerjee and capture West Bengal. However, she argues that this strategy has backfired, creating an 'anti-BJP wave' and strengthening the TMC's position. Ghose even cited instances where the citizenship of prominent figures, including Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, was questioned under the controversial SIR exercise, further galvanizing public opinion against the BJP's methods. The broader political context in West Bengal has been turbulent. The related articles highlight recent controversies such as Mamata Banerjee's 'infiltrator' jab at Prime Minister Modi, alleging voter rights violations, and the significant Sandeshkhali incident (which occurred earlier, in February 2024). The Sandeshkhali episode, involving allegations of land grabbing and sexual assault against local TMC leaders, certainly generated considerable 'localised anti-incumbency'. Ghose's current statements suggest that the larger, more recent controversy surrounding the SIR process has superseded and overshadowed these earlier localized grievances, shifting the political narrative in the TMC's favor. The chief minister's strong stance against the SIR, as demonstrated by her public criticisms on March 27, 2026, further emphasizes the TMC's attempt to frame the SIR as a central electoral issue and a direct attack on the democratic rights of the people of West Bengal. In essence, Ghose's analysis posits that while localised issues and discontent against certain TMC functionaries might have existed, the perceived overreach and controversial nature of the SIR process by the Election Commission, allegedly at the behest of the BJP, has inadvertently unified a significant portion of the electorate behind Mamata Banerjee. This, in her view, has neutralized or 'obliterated' the impact of any prior anti-incumbency factors at the local level, providing the TMC with a clear advantage as West Bengal heads into the crucial Assembly elections.

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