Monsoon Covers Entire India, IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Rains Ahead

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Thursday, July 9, 2026, that the Southwest Monsoon has successfully covered the entire geographical expanse of India. This significant milestone was achieved after the monsoon advanced into the remaining parts of the north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab. While the nationwide coverage is a welcome development for the agricultural sector, it arrived a day later than its normal date of July 8. The monsoon's journey this year began with a delayed onset over Kerala, where it arrived on June 4, three days later than the usual June 1 commencement date. This delayed start, combined with a subsequent lull in its advance, contributed to a significant rainfall deficit across the country in June, with India experiencing around 38-40% below-average rainfall for the month, marking one of the driest starts in decades. June's rainfall, at 99.5 mm, was the fifth-lowest recorded for the month since 1901. However, the monsoon witnessed a remarkable revival in early July, driven partly by a depression from the Bay of Bengal. This active phase led to intense and widespread rainfall across many regions, dramatically reducing the cumulative rainfall deficit. As of July 8 and 9, the all-India rainfall deficit has sharply narrowed to approximately 14-15.2%. Some regions, including parts of central and northwest India, even experienced a surplus in the first week of July, with the country recording a 42% excess rainfall between July 1 and July 8. Despite this recent surge, the IMD has issued a forecast for below-normal rainfall during the remainder of July, defined as less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). Rainfall is expected to gradually weaken from July 10 onwards, with below-normal conditions likely to prevail across the country from July 15. For the entire June-September monsoon season, the IMD predicts below-normal rainfall, around 90% of the LPA, largely attributed to the strengthening El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are typically associated with suppressed rainfall over India. The current active monsoon conditions have also brought severe weather events across the country. Torrential rains have triggered widespread waterlogging, flash floods, and landslides in several states. Delhi, for instance, experienced one of its heaviest spells of rain, leading to significant waterlogging in areas like New Delhi Railway Station and Munirka, and disrupting daily life. Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra also grappled with heavy rainfall and related incidents, including a building collapse in Pimpri Chinchwad. Flash floods and landslides were reported in hilly regions like Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir (Kishtwar), and Kerala (Wayanad), with fatalities recorded in some incidents. The IMD has issued red and orange alerts for various regions, warning of heavy to very heavy rainfall, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall expected in states like Uttarakhand, Assam, Meghalaya, and parts of Uttar Pradesh. The timing of the nationwide monsoon coverage varies historically. Since 1971, the monsoon has covered the country on dates ranging from June 16 in 2013 to as late as August 15 in 2002. This year's coverage on July 9 is the slowest since 2021, when it covered the country on July 12. While the speed of the monsoon's geographical advance doesn't singularly determine the seasonal rainfall, the interplay of global warming, which leads to more intense, short-duration rainfall spells, and phenomena like El Niño, significantly influences the monsoon's character and overall impact. The deficient monsoon in June has also affected Kharif sowing, with agricultural land under cultivation lagging behind previous years.

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